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JAEA
"Nuclear Energy Vision 2100: Toward a Low-Carbon Society"
A Japanese Energy Supply-and-Demand Scenario for the Year 2100
Oct. 16, 2008
Background:
People largely agree that human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, contribute to climate change. They thus recognize the importance of reducing CO2 emissions even as they stabilize energy supplies for years to come. This is why energy issues were the main topic of discussion at the G8 summit in Toyako, Hokkaido, held July 7�9, 2008. Under these general circumstances, the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), a semi-governmental organization charged with conducting comprehensive research and development on nuclear energy utilization, works to show the public easy-to-understand basic information on future energy supply and demand. The JAEA hopes to encourage vigorous public discussion of these issues.
Scope of scenario:
Because it will take more than a century to transform our energy system into a truly sustainable system by replacing society's major infrastructure, the time range of the scenario in the report is from 2000 to 2100. The scenario quantitatively examines a variety of technological options on their effectiveness in reducing emissions and stabilizing energy supplies. Most of the options are taken from the outcomes of JAEA's own past and ongoing research programs.
Important findings in the scenario:
- On the demand side, a shift to electricity and hydrogen, and promotion of high efficiency in the transportation sector in particular. On the supply side, utmost usage of renewable energy and aggressive adoption of nuclear energy.
- Use of nuclear energy not only to generate electricity (light water, fast-breeder, and nuclear fusion reactors) but also to produce hydrogen for automobile fuel and reducing agents used in the steel industry (high-temperature gas-cooled reactor).
- Final energy consumption in 2100 will be approximately 60 percent of the 2005 level. Electricity will account for about 60 percent (25 percent in 2005), hydrogen around 10 percent, and fossil fuels about 30 percent (75 percent in 2005).
- In 2100, approximately 10 percent (5 percent in 2005) of the primary energy supply will come from renewable energy, about 60 percent (10 percent in 2005) from nuclear energy, and around 30 percent (85 percent in 2005) from fossil fuels.
- Carbon dioxide emissions in 2100 will have fallen to only 10 percent of the current level. Both CO2 emission reduction and stable energy supplies�a low-carbon society�can be achieved by applying JAEA's research outcomes and technologies in development.
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